My 2008 Election Prediction

It will be a Clinton/McCain matchup.

Hillary Clinton/Barack Obama against John McCain/Mike Huckabee.

Clinton will unite the Republican party and McCain will be sworn into office in January of next year.

Reasons for the Democratic ticket - delegate situation, as posted yesterday. Hillary's superdelegates will give her the nomination, with the delegates from Michigan and Florida added to the mix after their previous banishment creating a much argued about majority.

Reasons for the Republican ticket - McCain would need a way to pull Southern support, and Huckabee proved that he could do it on Super Tuesday. Both men like each other, with McCain saying recently that he had, "the greatest respect and frankly some affection," for Huckabee. He'll stick it to Rush.

Not enough delegates for the Democrats

This is from a Washington Post chat that took place earlier today. Basically, the chances of Hillary or Obama picking up the needed delegates in the remaining primaries and caucus is virtually none, so its going to come down to the super delegates!

We've done a bad job of explaing this, but it is now basically mathematically impossible for either Clinton or Obama to win the nomination through the regular voting process (meaning the super-delegates decide this one, baby!).
Here's the math. There are 3,253 pledged delegates, those doled out based on actual voting in primaries and caucuses. And you need 2,025 to win the nomination.
To date, about 55% of those 3,253 delegates have been pledged in the voting process -- with Clinton and Obamb roughly splitting them at about 900 delegates a piece.
That means there are now only about 1,400 delegates left up for grabs in the remaining states and territories voting.
So, do the math. If they both have about 900 pledged delegates so far, they need to win more than 1,100 of the remaining 1,400 delegates to win the nomination through actual voting.
Ain't gonna happen, barring a stunning scandal or some new crazy revelation. So, they'll keep fighting this thing out, each accumulating their chunk of delegates, one of them holding a slight edge and bothing finishing the voting process with 1,600 or so delegates.
And then the super delegates decide this thing.
That's the math.

Battle between the F's and the T's

I watched most of the Democratic debate last night and have come to the following conclusion. Hillary Clinton is very knowledgeable about policy. Always answered questions in terms of what she had done in the past and how that would move her forward. Barack Obama was extremely visionary and focused more on how his actions would be based on principles, rationalizing his actions this way.

My theory is that, if you are familiar with the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator, Clinton supporters are more of the T(hinking)-type, whereas the Obama supporters are the F(eeling)-type.

I am speaking of the base of support here. This would not apply to strategy-minded people who simply support Obama because he is NOT Hillary since she would be the greatest unifier of the Republican party. It is the obsessed supporter types of which I speak. (i.e. Obama makes me feel so great!, or Hillary's experience is what we can count on!)

How to Save the Obama Campaign

I wouldn't consider myself in the Obama camp. I would say he is the best orator of this new millennium. I could sit and listen to him talk for hours. Does that make him the best guy for president? Not sure about that. Mike Huckabee totally re-wowed me last night preventing my acceptance of any sort of defeat (reality, noted). Still my favorite candidate out of everybody is that guy. But if the Democrats pick Obama, and the Republicans pick Giuliani or Romney, I think I'd vote Obama.

But let's not get too ahead of ourselves here.

Obama's campaign is sinking because of several things, the biggest one being the Clinton attack machine. So if he wants to get the nomination, the following is my proposal to save his campaign. The Clintons have made race an issue. It can't be unmade at this point, and he can't clearly attack back successfully because it hasn't been working too well for him since the Clintons are just so good at it.

But I am a politics junkie, and I like to watch a good race, so here it is...

MY PLAN TO SAVE THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN

1. Hold a "major address" press conference. Let all the networks know that you have a major announcement to make. This would naturally result in coverage by CNN, Fox News, and my favorite, MSNBC. Deliver this next week, fresh off of your win in South Carolina.

2. Start talking about the politics of hope, again.

3. Admit that your campaign shifted its focus to counter all the attacks from the Clinton camp. Acknowledge that the campaign has resorted to "politics as usual."

4. Make the vow that from this moment on, that you expect better from yourself, and that the people can expect better from you as well. That you will once again be talking about your grand vision for America. Not to worry, that each and every false attack hurled against you will be debunked on your website. But when you are addressing people directly, you will be talking about this vision. There is no time to waste on dirty politics.

5. Call on America to expect far more from its candidates than bickering. In turn, in addition to expecting more from you, tell the country that you expect a great deal from them.

6. A vision of America that isn't divided by party, age, race, or gender is possible. And we can't allow for those who choose to divide us this way to succeed. By falling to their level, they have won. We must rise above it. It might be hard, but we can do it.

7. Remind people that your campaign isn't about race. The Clintons sought to make it about race, and you had to defend yourself. Iowa answered the call and put America before race, and tell people that you no doubt that all of us can do that as well. Here on out, America is what it's going to be about.

8. The Clintons (yes, be blunt) have brought down the debate. Tell America that you and they are going to rise above it. A new day in politics.

The Polling Difference

After watching some analysis last night as to why the polling on the Democrats side was so off, some said that after Hillary's "emotional, humanizing moment," a flurry of older women came to her defense which wasn't reflected in the polling.

Something else that Chris Matthews and Michael Dyson were promoting on Hardball was that race played a role with people saying that they were going to vote for Obama but then when it came down to it, they were scared of the "swagger" of a successful black man (according to Dyson) so they went with Hillary. The called it the Bradley effect redux.

I have problems with this theory simply because, A) Bradley happened 20 years ago and B) this was a DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY. Between the polling difference and the results, Obama lost in the double digits. Bradley was a GENERAL ELECTION campaign. Democrats who vote in the primary are of the more liberal wing of their party. There are certainly racists of every race in both parties, but not that many. I have a hard time believing that that many of them are racist.

MY THEORY:

Having not heard it from anyone else in the media, I am quite comfortable claiming it as solely my own.

The reason in the polling difference was that it was the Hillary factor. With all the media fueled momentum Obama was bringing with him after Iowa, Hillary was going to be the big loser. So if a pollster asked someone who they'd be voting for, it'd be FAR easier to go with the hot, young, Obama and be on the perceived winning side.

They said they were voting for Obama because they were ashamed to say they were voting for Hillary.

That, coupled with the "emotional, humanizing moment" which brought in older, sympathetic women (and some men, I'm sure) after the utter bashing Hillary was receiving, was easily enough to give her the thousands of vote needed to edge out Obama.

How Embarassing!

I got home late last night after a Bible study, and turned on the TV for a moment right before I was going to go to bed. I figured that the New Hampshire primary would be won by Barack Obama by a landslide, and John McCain by a hair. The plan was simple. Just confirm the results, and go to sleep.

However.

When I turned on the TV and saw that Hillary Clinton had defeated Obama, I was in shock. I yelled "Oh my goodness!" or "You've GOT to be kidding me!" for about five full minutes after I seeing the results. My roommate woke up and came to my room to see what was going on. (I thought I had covered my mouth effectively, but clearly not.)

Ever since Iowa, every single person who has a TV show who comments on politics was doing a postmortem on Hillary's campaign. What will she do now? Who will the republicans nominate to beat Obama? Even the Clintons were talking about how they were expecting to lose.

But somehow, EVERYBODY was wrong. Hillary won. The media hype was wrong.

Chris Matthews, who I really despise (banned him for a while, but now watch again in controlled settings), has been the biggest Obama pusher (not officially, of course... he thinks he is objective) sat it shock and amazement to see the election results. It was quite funny to me to see it.

These results are very refreshing to me, (not because I support Hillary... I'm a Huckabee man!) because the media totally created Obama mania and have been hyping him, hoping to shape our elections based on their preferences. However, New Hampshire showed us anyway, people actually do have the ability to think for themselves (sometimes) and will not lead them where the media is trying to take them.

So I got home a bit after midnight, but I sat in shock until about 2:30 AM watching re-airs of coverage, victory speeches from all candidates, and various media talking heads trying to wipe the egg off their faces.

Such exciting times to be a politics junkie.

Maryland Sales Tax Increase Day

To all my fellow Marylanders:

Today our sales tax increase of 20% goes into effect. From 5%, we are now at 6%. This totally changes my dollar menu meals at McDonald's! I'll now have to use pennies in addition to silver coins. Put this money to good use government of mine! (Yeah, right.)

Thank you, Democratic Governor O'Malley and State House!